TODAY’S DATA LENS

100% can tell you less than 95%.

Square Today’s Data Lens card comparing customer satisfaction at two sites. Site A reports 100% from 10 responses with a wide 95% Wilson confidence interval of 72.2% to 100%. Site B reports 95% from 1,000 responses with a narrow interval of 93.5% to 96.2%. A three-step strip explains the rate, Wilson confidence interval, and that wider intervals are less precise.

A little further

A Wilson interval is a confidence interval for a proportion. It starts with the observed rate — successes divided by responses — then adjusts the centre and width using the sample size and the chosen confidence level. For a 95% interval, the calculation uses a standard-normal value of 1.96.

The important bit is how to read it. A wide interval means the estimate is relatively imprecise; a narrow one means much more evidence sits behind the headline percentage. It does not mean there is a 95% probability that the true rate lies inside this particular interval.

That is why showing the denominator alongside a rate can materially change how convincing the KPI feels.

The rate is the headline. The interval shows the uncertainty.