TODAY’S DATA LENS

30% rain does not mean 18 wet minutes.

Square Today’s Data Lens card titled ‘30% rain does not mean 18 wet minutes.’ The left panel shows the incorrect interpretation of 30% as 18 minutes of an hour. The right panel shows the correct interpretation as roughly a 3-in-10 chance of at least 0.1mm of precipitation during that hour.

Observation

On an hourly Met Office forecast, a 30% chance of precipitation means roughly a 3-in-10 chance that at least 0.1mm falls during that hour. It does not mean rain for 30% of the hour. Probability is about whether the event happens, not how long it lasts.

Percentage of chance. Not percentage of time.